Wednesday, 18 March 2026 Strategic Analysis of the Middle East

The Dendias Doctrine: Greece’s Diplomatic and Military Blueprint Against Turkish Expansion

Dendias Doctrine
Hellenic Army NCO Academy military colour, carried by cadet NCOs at the National Day Parade of 2011” by K. Krallis, SV1XV, licensed under CC BY 4.0. Source: Wikimedia Commons: Hellenic Army NCO Academy military colour.jpg (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hellenic_Army_NCO_Academy_military_colour.jpg

On 18 February, Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias unveiled a new measure dubbed the “Turkey clause,” aimed at preventing major weapons systems sold to Athens from being transferred to Ankara. The move comes amid growing concerns over Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman and irredentist policies, which have expanded its influence and military presence well beyond its borders, spanning the Balkans, the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and even Africa. As one of Turkey’s key regional rivals, Greece has expressed alarm at these developments. Analysts say the measure reflects Athens’ efforts to maintain the regional balance of power and limit Ankara’s strategic reach.

A week before Dendias’ unprecedented announcement, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited the Turkish capital in a gesture aimed at managing rising tensions and maintaining open lines of communication. The trip focused on expanding trade and reinforcing cultural and economic ties, underscoring Athens’ commitment to dialogue with Ankara.

In retrospect, it is possible to say that the topics covered, along with the smiling photographs of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Ankara, represent only the tip of the iceberg. Behind the scenes, Greece has been steadily implementing a defence doctrine designed to protect its national interests, particularly the strategic positions and security of islands near Turkey. The chief architect of this doctrine is Defence Minister Nikos Dendias.

Leveraging his long political career in the New Democracy Party and strong professional relationship with NATO and the EU, Dendias has pursued a firm diplomatic line against Turkey. In international forums, the United Nations, and NATO meetings, he has consistently defended Greece’s sovereign rights. His approach goes beyond rhetoric, transforming into a strategic effort to strengthen Greece’s diplomatic leverage vis-à-vis Turkey. By skillfully using Western media and regional diplomatic channels, Dendias has raised Greece’s international profile and brought his country’s security concerns to the global stage.

Since assuming the role of Foreign Minister in 2019, Nikos Dendias has emerged as one of the most influential figures shaping Greece’s diplomatic and security posture toward Turkey. His tenure has coincided with a period of renewed tensions over sovereignty disputes in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, where long-standing issues have resurfaced with increasing intensity.

Dendias’ approach, as Greece’s current minister of defence goes beyond military deterrence. By leveraging international diplomacy, strategic alliances and multilateral forums, he has sought to reinforce Greece’s strategic position in the region. His policies aim not only to safeguard national interests but also to project Greece as a credible, proactive actor capable of navigating complex geopolitical challenges while strengthening ties with key partners.

Greece’s national security strategy complements the diplomatic line led by Nikos Dendias by focusing on defence industry investments. Under Dendias’ leadership, Greece has strengthened its international alliances in line with a strategy aimed at countering Turkey. By consolidating its position within the European Union and NATO, and through joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and military agreements with the United States and France and Israel, Athens has enhanced both its military and diplomatic security. These alliances have not only bolstered Greece’s defence capabilities but also expanded its diplomatic manoeuvring  space against Turkey, helping to keep tensions at a manageable level. The country has acquired critical weapons systems and air defence equipment from the United States, France and Israel. Rafale fighter jets, Patriot systems, PULS rocket launchers and unmanned aerial vehicles have not only boosted the Greek military’s deterrence but also provided Athens with a diplomatic leverage against Turkey. However, the direct operational use of these systems against Turkey remains limited due to international agreements and export control laws. This duality acts both as a constraint and a tool of diplomatic balance in Greece’s strategy, a reality Dendias is keenly aware of.

The recently introduced “Turkey clause” against Ankara resulted in a Turkish defamation campaign against Dendias in the Turkish institutionalised media where he is often portrayed as the “bad cop”, while the image of Prime Minister Mitsotakis remains comparatively more favourable.

Regionally, Dendias’ Turkey-focused policies have brought continental shelf and natural gas disputes in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean back into the spotlight. Greece has sought to protect its maritime rights through both international law and alliance mechanisms. While this strategy provides short-term deterrence, it also raises long-term risks of tension and conflict.

The combination of a firm diplomatic stance and military readiness requires Greece to constantly balance regional stability with diplomatic relations. In this context, Athens’ recent elevation of its ties with Cyprus and Israel into a strategic trilateral partnership reflects the calculated logic of this approach.

In addition to this trilateral alliance, any discussion of Greece’s defence strategy must include the Achilles Shield programme, undoubtedly one of the most significant and ambitious initiatives of the Mitsotakis-Dendias duo. First announced to the public in 2025 under the leadership of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the programme represents a cornerstone of Greece’s long-term armament and defence modernisation plan.

Presented to parliament as part of a 12-year defence roadmap, Achilles Shield aims to transform Greece’s air defence capabilities into a multilayered, integrated system. Its primary objective is to create a resilient shield against modern threats, including aircraft, drones, missiles and other potential dangers, thereby strengthening national sovereignty and regional deterrence. The programme was formally detailed during Mitsotakis’ 2025 parliamentary address, which outlined both the project’s specifics and its place within the broader defence budget.

In implementing this strategic defence plan, Nikos Dendias has played a key role, particularly in diplomatic and political coordination. He has represented the government in securing international recognition for the programme and in negotiations for weapons acquisitions with NATO allies and external suppliers. Programmes like Achilles Shield have thus evolved from being purely technical procurement plans to becoming central elements of Greece’s regional security strategy.

Through this process, Dendias has been instrumental in ensuring the programme’s legitimacy and defending Greece’s interests in defence partnerships, cementing his position as a pivotal actor in its implementation.

Greece’s strategy vis-à-vis Turkey goes beyond mere military preparedness or diplomatic representation; it reflects a long-term, multidimensional and integrated approach to security. Diplomatic initiatives, such as Mitsotakis’ visit to Ankara, are balanced by Dendias’ firm and resolute foreign policy, allowing Athens to manage conflict risks while safeguarding its national interests. Investments in modern weapons and defence systems, such as Achilles Shield, not only enhance Greece’s deterrence capabilities but also expand its diplomatic maneuvering space within NATO and the EU. Ultimately, Greece’s defence and foreign policy strategy integrates diplomacy, alliances and military modernization to both safeguard regional equilibrium and establish a sustainable balance of power against actors, such as Turkey, that challenge the region’s stability.