All Quiet on the Northeastern Front? Turkmenistan’s Neutrality Policy Challenged by the Iran Conflict
The Iran war, now in its third week, continues to dramatically affect countries bordering Iran and the wider Middle East. The regime…
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Category: Geopolitics
Hezbollah’s Gamble: How a Radical Militant Group May Have Made Israel–Lebanon Normalization Possible
History is replete with ironies, but few are as exquisite as this one. The organisation that did more than any other to…
The Ayatollah’s New Clothes: Where Is Mojtaba Khamenei?
Since being named Iran’s third Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public. He has spoken to no one, appeared to…
Oil, War and the Strait of Hormuz: The Economic Stakes of the Iran Conflict
Wars are usually measured on maps. Economists begin with choke-points. The war with Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into the…
The Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier and a Shifting Balance of Power
Cyprus lies well beyond the Middle East’s battlefields, yet it has been drawn into the conflict between Israel, the United States, and…
Loyalty vs Survival: Hezbollah’s Existential Gamble in the Iran Conflict
In early March 2026, Lebanon entered a perilous new chapter. The Iran conflict, which began between the United States, Israel, and Iran…
From Munich to Qamishli: Why Kurdish Power Risks Becoming Paper Promises
Every February, Munich hosts its annual Security Conference, a gathering of statesmen, diplomats and defence experts to discuss the globe’s most pressing…
The Sky Is No Longer Safe: How Iran’s Retaliation Shattered the Gulf’s Illusion of Insulation
For decades, the Gulf Arab states have operated under an unspoken assumption: that wars in the Middle East were things that happened…
Hostage Diplomacy: Iran’s Persistent Strategy and the West’s Failure to Deter
After more than a year in detention in Iran, the judiciary in Tehran announced on 19 February that Lindsey and Craig Foreman,…
The GCC’s Inconvenient Fracture: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Competing Visions of Regional Order
On December 29, 2025, Saudi Arabian jets struck the port of Mukalla in southern Yemen. The target was not a Houthi weapons…